Physician statistics are vitally important to the efficiency and effectiveness of recruiting. Knowing these statistics helps recruiters to better understand the target market and provides a gauge for recruiters to know how much or how little of the target market they currently possess. For the physicians’ perspective, statistics help them to assess the competition or help them determine why they may choose one specialty over another. Statistics show which specialties are growing and which are saturated, and they show where specialists are needed geographically. Additionally, they show trends, so that one can predict which specialties will be in demand in the future, and where specialists and primary care physicians will be most needed.
In this article, we’re going to look at some of the trends that are showing up in physician statistics and try to make some observations based upon where the market is today. The statistics in this article were collected from the American Medical Association’s Physician Masterfile and span the years 1970-1999. First, we will examine the total number of physicians, then, we’ll look at the breakdown by specialty, and finally, by geographic distribution.
Number of Physicians
An obvious increase in the number of physicians (even relative to the population increase) is offset by an increasing demand for healthcare as well as for physicians setting up practice in smaller towns. While International Medical Graduates (IMGs) have helped fill healthcare slots in small towns, physicians who are solely American-trained will always be in great demand.
Total US Physicians by Major Categories, 1970-1999
| Category | 1970 | 1980 | 1990 | 1999 |
| Total Physicians | 334,028 | 467,679 | 615,421 | 797,634 |
| Male | 308,627 | 413,395 | 511,227 | 611,028 |
| Female | 25,401 | 54,284 | 104,194 | 186,606 |
| US Graduates | 270,637 | 362,307 | 475,394 | 595,562 |
| International Med. Graduates | 57,217 | 97,726 | 131,764 | 191,518 |
| Canadian Graduates | 6,174 | 7,646 | 8,263 | 10,554 |
Just as female workers have increased in all other fields in the last decade, female physicians have entered the healthcare field in larger numbers in recent years. As the patient population continues to specifically request female physicians, and with the increased accessibility for female students to enter medical schools, we can anticipate the distribution of physicians by gender to reach an equilibrium in the future.
Percent Distribution of Total US Physicians by Age and Gender, 1999
| <35 | 35-44 | 45-54 | 55-64 | 65+ | |
| Male | 13.5 | 24.2 | 24.9 | 16.2 | 21.1 |
| Female | 28.7 | 35.0 | 22.0 | 7.9 | 6.5 |
Although the total number of practicing physicians is increasing, a portion of this increase is due to the fact that a larger number of physicians are remaining active past 65 years of age. This finding corresponds with the “graying of America”. Although this group remains a valuable resource, recent surveys indicate that these physicians are increasingly disenchanted with reimbursement and managed care and are, therefore, leaving or significantly cutting back their practice hours.
Also of note, our “baby boomer” physicians, age 35 to 54, comprise 57% of the total medical community. This will ensure newly trained physicians remain in demand. Because female physicians have entered the healthcare field in larger numbers in recent years, most female physicians are considerably younger compared to the total physician population and have a tendency to retire at a younger age.
Specialties with the most physicians under 35 years of age:
- Pediatrics – 24.9%
- General Surgery – 20.3%
- Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation – 16.6%
Specialties with the most physicians 65 years old and older:
- General Practice – 49.2%
- Public Health – 36.5%
- Occupational Medicine – 29.8%
Physician Specialty
Although the absolute number of physicians in primary care continues to increase, primary care physicians (as a percent of the total) remains stable and, in fact, has decreased. This indicates that the majority of physicians continue to specialize and/or sub-specialize, despite a common belief that the market is currently specialist-saturated. In 1985, there were 223,952 Primary Care physicians (comprising Family Practice, Internal Medicine, Ob/Gyn, and Pediatrics). In 1992, there were 260,859 Primary Care physicians.
Just a few years ago, primary care represented approximately 70% of the physician-recruiting marketplace, with the remaining 30% demanding specialists. Today, those figures have transposed, so that only 30% of recruiting is focused on primary care, while 70% is dedicated to handling specialists, especially in cardiology (invasive, interventional, and non-invasive) and radiology. And while anesthesiology that was somewhat saturated a few years ago, significant demand exists today.
Since each hospital market represents its own microcosm, the demand for various specialties is location-specific with general trends for types of physicians changing over time. Age distribution, fellowship numbers, practice patterns, and many other factors contribute to constantly changing trends.
The ten specialties showing the highest counts of physicians in 1999 included: Internal Medicine (97,707), Family Practice (68,663), Pediatrics (49,422), Psychiatry (37,838), Obstetrics/ Gynecology (35,054), Anesthesiology (33,621), General Surgery (30,990), Orthopedic Surgery (20,260), Emergency Medicine (21,991), and Diagnostic Radiology (20,397). Considering only the category Resident/Fellow, the percentages of Residents/Fellows to total physicians in each of these specialties are: Internal Medicine (21.2%), General Surgery (24.3%), Diagnostic Radiology (16.5%), Pediatrics (15.2%), Emergency Medicine (14.8%), Family Practice (13.8%), Orthopedic Surgery (14.3%), Anesthesiology (10.5%), and Psychiatry (11.3%).
None of these percentages has changed much since 1970. However, the percentage of inactive physicians has nearly doubled since 1970 (5.9% to 9.5% of all physicians).
The majority of physicians today are board certified. As utilization review and quality of outcomes continue to be major areas of focus for consumers and payors, and with the continued growth of managed care, we expect the percentage of board certified physicians to further increase in the future.
Physician Geographic Distribution
Ten states account for 59% of the non-federal physicians. This finding further supports the misdistribution theory in that 89.6% of the total physicians practice in Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). Physicians are constantly attracted to large patient populations but this often means greater competition. The best financial opportunities will continue to be in the smaller towns where there are fewer physicians to compete for a population that would prefer to receive healthcare locally.
| California | 94,867 |
| New York | 77,931 |
| Texas | 45,876 |
| Florida | 44,917 |
| Pennsylvania | 39,024 |
| Illinois | 35,395 |
| Ohio | 29,831 |
| Massachusetts | 28,457 |
| New Jersey | 26,891 |
| Michigan | 24,832 |
Physician to Population Ratio Per 100,000
The rate of increase of physicians has outpaced the rate of population growth as indicated by historical physician-to-population ratios. The question remains today, as it has in the past-are physicians going to move to underserved areas or will they continue to establish practices in populated areas? The two most likely answers are: either patients will continue to migrate to physicians or competition will force physicians to go to the patients for economic stability.
Number of physicians per 100,000 populations is 291 in 1999.
- 1960 – 142
- 1980 – 202
- Since 1965, the number of physicians has grown four times faster than the population. From 1965 to 1999, physician percentage growth was 173.1, population growth, 39.0.
Physicians per 100,000 civilian population by census division
| Pacific | 278 | Washington, Oregon, California, Alaska, Hawaii |
| Mountain | 236 | Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico |
| West North Central | 246 | North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri |
| West South Central | 224 | Oklahoma, Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana |
| East North Central | 259 | Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan |
| Middle Atlantic | 370 | New York, Pennsylvania, New Jersey |
| New England | 396 | Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut |
| East South Central | 232 | Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi |
| South Atlantic | 285 | Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida |
Again we see lower physician-to-population ratios in areas of lower population density and higher physician-to-population ratios in areas of higher density. When looking at statistics, it is important to look for, and understand the reasons behind, trends. In this article, trends show a dramatic increase in numbers-in physicians per 100,000, female/male ratios, and International Medical Graduates.
Surprisingly, physician recruiting firms have also seen a tremendous increase in open positions, prompting the recruiter to ask the question: if there are so many physicians available, how can there still be so many open positions waiting to be filled? Several factors contribute to the influx. The primary factor is that there is more of a demand for healthcare today-people are more educated about healthcare and they are going to their doctor more than in previous years. Secondly, healthcare is more advanced. There are treatments and techniques for numerous ailments, which didn’t exist only a few years ago. Many of these treatments are performed by specialists, so that patients are visiting a combination of healthcare professionals to serve their needs. Specialists are moving into smaller towns that are requiring their services.
Additionally, physicians are not staying in one place as in years past. Physicians are moving around more in an effort to improve their situation (more money, better climate, better hours). Younger physicians don’t want to work 100 hours per week. All of these factors work to facilitate a continuous demand for physicians.
Note: All data is the copyright of, and was compiled as of 12/31/1999 from, © AMA’s Physician Masterfile.
Written and edited by Michael P. Broxterman, Chief Operating Officer, Pinnacle Health Group, Atlanta, GA, www.phg.com, and Terry Lane, PHG Staff Writer, terrylane@earthlink.net.